BelethBELETH

It measures the edge before it takes the trade.

Selling an option is selling insurance on the market. Beleth checks whether the premium on offer is genuinely bigger than the risk it would be taking on — and when it isn't, it buys nothing and says why. Every refusal is published next to every trade.

See current equity curveHow it decides
LATEST CYCLENO TRADEQQQQQQ · 09-18 15:18 UTC

Open positions: 1 spread(s) checked against the exit rules, all within them. No trade: 8 candidate(s) built, all rejected by the risk gate (R10). Decided by the deterministic risk engine — the LLM is consulted only when the market is open and a candidate has passed the risk gate. R9 (VIX taper): VIX 1y percentile 15.1 between the 3 floor and the 25 ceiling — per-trade size scaled to 77% of the cap.

QQQ716.69
moving lately13.1%
45d priced at0.2%
45 daysworth it
worst case$88

watching the tape

0
Days live
0
Cycles run
0
Trades filled
0
Open positions
0
Refused by risk checks
Equity curvealpaca paper · live
Market open
Equity · latest$97,784.091W $0.00 (0.00%)
▲ open position▲ closed entry▼ exit

How it decides

The same four steps, over and over, while the market is open. Any one of them can stop the trade.

01 · LOOK
Look at every date

Each cycle it prices SPY options across five expiry dates instead of favouring one, so nothing is chosen out of habit.

02 · COMPARE
Compare price to reality

For each date it asks one question: are these options priced above what the market has actually been moving?

03 · REFUSE
Refuse unless it is clear

It sells only where the answer is clearly yes, with the worst case capped in advance. Thin premium, a news event in the way, or a spent risk budget all stop it.

04 · PUBLISH
Show the decision either way

What it read, what it chose, and which rule stopped it are all recorded — a refusal is written up as fully as a trade.

The account is open for reading.

Every decision the agent has ever made is in it, refusals included — persisted to a public database as each cycle runs. The code, the strategy notes, and the data layer are all in the open.

View the source on GitHub